COVID-19 VACCINES
Yellow CARD analysis
Data is a precious thing and will last longer than the systems themselves.
Introduction
Our analysis of the Medical & Healthcare products Regulation Agency (MHRA) Yellow Card Scheme for COVID-19 vaccines uses the publicly available reports that are released by the MHRA – initially weekly and then monthly. Regrettably, the MHRA overwrites the report each time, so the only download available to the general public at any given time is the summary at that particular point. Without access to preceding reports, the snapshot their document provides allows for little analysis.
Fortunately, we have downloaded and kept a copy of every report going back to the start of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and have therefore been able to build a more detailed picture of how adverse reactions have developed over time.
The MHRA does a monthly “cut off” of data but then takes several days to make the summary report available on its website. So at times we can be looking at information that is over a month out of date. Given that millions were receiving vaccines each week, we are concerned that this time lag introduces additional risk as well as restricting the ability of an individual to make a truly informed decision about having the vaccine based on up to date risk information.
We are also hampered by incomplete data so have deliberately held back from drawing conclusions based on the data we have. Instead, we aim to provide insights into what we do know so that we, and you, can ask more meaningful questions of the MHRA, the government, vaccine manufacturers – and your own healthcare providers.
What We Do Know
- How many 1st and 2nd doses of each vaccine brand have been administered
- How many adverse reactions have been reported
- How many deaths have been reported
- How each reaction & death has been classified in fine detail
What We Don't Know
- Whether a death or reaction reported was caused by the vaccine or a coincidence
- Whether a death or reaction report relates to a 1st, 2nd or booster dose
- Time between dose and death or reaction
- Time between death or reaction & reporting
- Demographic information of patient (gender, age, health status)
- If a patient has had multiple reactions*
- Patterns of combinations of reactions*
- How many deaths & reactions haven't been reported
- Whether vaccine mixing has taken place
- If changes in storage guidance for vaccines have impacted reactions
- Whether patients reporting adverse reactions had previously had or tested positive for COVID-19
- What brand(s) the booster doses are**
* From November 2022, MHRA is issuing the data in a new format and we will be exploring whether we can glean any new insights
** From January 2023, MHRA is changing its reporting to only report on boosters administered from Autumn 2022. We will explore whether this new report will allow us to better analyse the boosters – if not historically, then at least going forward.
Cause for Concern
As we began our first look at the week by week data, it came to our attention that Dr Tess Lawrie (MBBCh, PhD), of the Evidence-based Medicine Consultancy, was about to undertake a similar task. We therefore reached out and agreed that we would pool our technical skills and her medical expertise to better understand and analyse the data.
An important discovery was that similar conditions had been classified in many different ways. Dr Lawrie’s medical knowledge helped us to better group similar conditions together. Once we did that, it became clear that there were far higher incidences of some reactions than a cursory glance of the MHRA report would suggest.
Dr Lawrie was so concerned about what she saw that she immediately presented the findings in an open letter to Dr June Raine, Chief Executive of the MHRA. As well as presenting the findings, the letter also called for an immediate halt of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout until more detailed analysis of the Yellow Card data can be carried out.
With the rollout continuing, Dr Lawrie sent a follow up letter in September 2021 highlighting even more concerns, particularly that the suspected deaths per million doses was 28 times higher than for the flu vaccines.
Alas, as at January 2023, the mRNA vaccines are still being rolled out – and actively recommended by healthcare providers, government and the mainstream media – and the number of reactions and deaths attributed to them continue to rise.
Yellow Card Summary to 28th December 2022
In early January 2023, MHRA reissued the data to 23/11/22 in a new format, claiming it was the same data, however we have compared the two datasets and found an additional 83,056 reactions and 2 deaths in the reissued reports. We have made the assumption that the reissued dataset is the more accurate and therefore all charts reflect these figures going forward.
| Pfizer/ BioNTech | AstraZeneca | Moderna | Novavax | Unspecified | Totals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rollout Start Date | 08/12/20 | 04/01/21 | 07/04/21 | 03/02/22 | n/a | n/a |
| First Doses Administered | 27.2 million | 24.9 million | 1.7 million | unknown | n/a | 53.8 million |
| Second Doses Administered | 25.0 million | 24.2 million | 1.6 million | unknown | n/a | 50.8 million |
| Boosters Administered | 40.6 million | 40.6 million | ||||
| Adverse Reactions | 540,860 | 926,064 | 160,554 | 111 | 6,712 | 1,634,632 |
| Deaths | 872 | 1,348 | 117 | 2 | 67 | 2,406 |
(as at 23/01/23 Novavax data from 23/11/22 to 28/12/22 is not included due to technical problems at MHRA)
How The Brands Compare
- Pfizer/BioNTech
- AstraZeneca
- Moderna
- Unspecified
Due to the small quantities currently associated with the Novavax brand, they do not show up on the pie charts
Doses
Adverse Reactions
Deaths
Due to the way MHRA has been reporting booster doses without a breakdown between the brands used, there is a growing disconnect between brand dosage numbers and adverse reactions. While booster doses are shown under "Unspecified", the likelihood is that people reporting a reaction are specifying which brand they received. It is therefore increasingly difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions. We still await an explanation as to why MHRA have not been reporting booster doses by brand in the same way they report first and second doses.
We understand that from January 2023, only third and subsequent dose volumes will be reported and these will be by brand, but until we have sight of that report some time in February we will not know whether the brand totals will include doses given historically. We will update this page once we know.
Top 20 Adverse Reactions
| wdt_ID | Condition | No of Reactions | No of Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Headache | 130,211 | 1 |
| 2 | Fatigue | 93,195 | 1 |
| 3 | Pyrexia | 91,619 | 1 |
| 4 | Chills | 63,960 | 0 |
| 5 | Nausea | 57,692 | 0 |
| 6 | Pain in extremity | 46,027 | 2 |
| 7 | Myalgia | 45,585 | 0 |
| 8 | Dizziness | 43,270 | 0 |
| 9 | Arthralgia | 40,934 | 0 |
| 10 | Pain | 32,860 | 0 |
Top 20 Causes of Death
| wdt_ID | Condition | No of Deaths |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Death (no further information available) | 620 |
| 2 | Pulmonary embolism | 174 |
| 3 | Myocardial infarction | 133 |
| 4 | Cardiac arrest | 109 |
| 5 | Cerebrovascular accident | 83 |
| 6 | Cerebral haemorrhage | 81 |
| 7 | Sudden death | 81 |
| 8 | COVID-19 | 75 |
| 9 | Thrombosis | 58 |
| 10 | Pneumonia | 57 |
REACTIONS & DEATHS BY TYPE (SOC)
| wdt_ID | Type of Reaction (System of Care) | Reactions | Deaths |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blood disorders | 29,851 | 26 |
| 2 | Cardiac disorders | 33,275 | 446 |
| 3 | Congenital disorders | 272 | 5 |
| 4 | Ear disorders | 21,316 | 1 |
| 5 | Endocrine disorders | 1,020 | 0 |
| 6 | Eye disorders | 26,570 | 0 |
| 7 | Gastrointestinal disorders | 146,908 | 36 |
| 8 | General disorders | 459,458 | 775 |
| 9 | Hepatic disorders | 951 | 11 |
| 10 | Immune system disorders | 7,196 | 7 |